A year ago, I wrote up a similar article predicting who I thought would win the tournament. At the time I successfully predicted Novak’s victory but Serena’s finals loss to Angelique Kerber was an upset. This year, I have taken my predictions a step further, but focused exclusively on the Men’s Singles draw.

Having announced the draws earlier in the day, this prediction has been developed based on the draw alone. I am not a betting person, so even if, for some reason, I have miraculously pre-empted the outcome of a large number of the matches, it is purely coincidental and all I seek are the bragging rights… =)

In essence, I have recreated the entire Men’s Singles draw, into the following.

In the first quarter of the draw, you can see in the greatest level of detail, how I think every game will play out. Andy Murray should comfortably progress to Round 4. In the next section, I expect John Isner to succeed, but ultimately face off against the current World #1. I expect Roger Federer to eventually face Kei Nishikori in Round 4, which I would love to be present at. I do have my doubts about the former world #1 and his ability to reach Round 4. I suspect Tomas Berdych will be a good challenge but that Federer will be able to claim victory, possibly in four sets, or three sets where at least one is decided via tie-breaker.

In the later section of this first half, Stan Wawrinka, who we should remember was the 2014 Australian Open Champion, should reach Round 4 comfortably. I suspect Pablo Cuevas will succumb to home crowd favourite Nick Krygios, who is also a higher seeded player. The question for Nick is whether he can steel his nerves and attitude to focus on the game. Jo-Wilfred Tsonga’s experience should help him prevail and progress to his fourth round match up against Marin Cilic. In this line up, I predict Bernard Tomic will fall to Marin in most likely a four-set match, if not a five-setter.

In the second half, Gael Monfils should emerge victorious through to Round 4, where Rafael Nadal should face him. Nadal’s progress is expected but by no means a shoe-in. That fourth round meeting should prove to be a very entertaining match to follow. David Ferrer should end up facing Milos Raonic, although Gills Simon could very well out-play Milos in their third round encounter. For now, my prediction remains with the Canadian overcoming the Frenchman.

In the final quarter of the men’s draw, I predict the top seeded players to all progress which leads to a fourth round encounter for our reigning champion in Novak Djokovic against Richard Gasquet. Unfortunately, the records suggest that head-to-head, Djokovic should add to the current 12 vs 1 success rate against Gasquet.

 

The final chart here summarises the Finals outcomes I predict. Whilst the final I predict is a replay of both 2015 and 2016 tournaments, I do think Novak will get the better of world #1 Sir Andy Murray, denying him yet again the Australian Open crown. I do think this year’s final will likely be a much more closer fight between the two… I expect Stan Wawrinka to fall victim to Andy Murray – another thrilling final to follow closely, but if that semi-final pushes Andy Murray, he will need the full two days rest to recharge and beat Djokovic. Contrastingly, I expect Nadal to best David Ferrer but fall in the semi-final line up against Djokovic. Should David Ferrer beat Nadal, that outcome should not really affect Djokovic’s supremacy. Whilst I love and have become a fan of Kei Nishikori, I think whilst he will challenge Murray, it is unlikely that he will win given the current 20% win rate against Murray. If Kei can beat Murray that would be one of the biggest upsets of the Australian Open tournament.

At the end of the day, I wish all tennis players the very best in their individual journeys that they will transpire over the next fortnight in order to claim the Australian Open Slam. I expect the latest upgrades to Melbourne Park will ensure record-breaking crowds, although the weather will undoubtedly play a critical role in determining this. For 2017, with my Australian Open Membership lapsed, this year’s tournament can only be enjoyed from afar, but I’ll have this draw prediction handy to see just how close or far off I was…