While this is published on Day #3 of the 2018 tournament, we return to a tradition and seasonal topic of the Australian Open. This tradition began in 2016 and continued in 2017. The format, structure and template developed for the 2017 tournament is being leveraged for this year’s prediction.
There is no maths or scientific calculations behind this prediction, and it is purely based on my judgement and knowledge of individual players. Where qualifiers and lesser known players are in the draw, I tend to favour incumbents, higher ranked and more experienced players. This year, since my modelling and launch of the series is late, post Round 1, the prediction modelling merely applies to Round 2 onwards.
In the first quarter of the draw, I expect Nadal to progress through to the finals, alongside Marin Cilic. The Round 4 playoffs I expect are Nadal vs Diego Schwartman and Giles Simon vs Marin Cilic. In terms of Round 1 results, there have been no surprise upsets in my opinion, although there have no doubt been two close games so far – games 5 and 6, where each was a five-set with final 11-9 scores reflecting the closeness and competitiveness of the challengers.
In the second quarter, I again expect experience and top ranking players to prevail over their challenges. Some higher-profile Round 3 competitions are expected in Dimitrov vs Baghdatis. Our Cypriot/adopted Aussie in Baghdatis is always a pleasure to watch but I do expect Grigor to see off the challenge. Game 101 is definitely one to watch! Local man Nick Krygios should also face Jo-Wilfred Tsonga and again be a very entertaining match to watch. If the 2017 programming schedule is any reliable model, then both Round 3 show-downs would play out most likely on Friday 19/01. These matches could very well be five-set nail-biters…
In the second half of the draw, the top third quarter has high calibre players in former champions Stan Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic. Accordingly, I think most analysts would expect both men to face off in their quarter-final. Not that the other players would not play their finest tennis and be of high standard, but I do think Djokovic will have a slightly easier course of progression through to his quarter-final booking. Stan’s greatest challenge I would expect to come from Round 3 Fernando Verdasco and then Austrian and world #5 Dominic Thiem. Thiem is a dark horse factor, and just because his ranking is higher than Stan, currently ranked #8, and their head-to-head is 3-1 in Stan’s favour, does not guarantee Stan an easy win. I expect games 106 and 117 to be broadcast somewhere in the Saturday 20/01 and Monday 22/01 timeframe…
In the final quarter of the Men’s Single Draw, I expect the quarter-final to be a show-down between crowd favourite Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych. Goffin as world #7 I expect to win against Fognini even though their current head-to-head experience has Fognini up 1-0. In reality, these two players have only faced off once, so it is hard to make a more substantive prediction for their expected Round 3 game. Berdych vs Del Potro is an interesting line-up I expect to play out in Round 3. My selection of Del Potro is based on their head-to-head record, and also given Juan Martin is younger and has been on a winning trend in more recent times, these factors suggest he should prevail. Match 110, in my opinion, will be another potential five-setter slog.
In this way, the table above reflects my initial prediction for the finals journey to an eventual Djokovic victory. It is interesting that one year ago, I had predicted incorrectly the same outcome… At the time of writing, Federer is the bookie’s favourite to win the grand slam, but I suspect the form of Djokovic will prevail in their semi-final showdown. As good as Nadal is, I do think Djokovic has the advantage over the Spaniard. A Nadal vs Federer final would be a much closer match, and I suspect Federer would clinch the title in such a finals show-down. Wawrinka’s quarter-final match against Djokovic will be another entertaining match to watch with great interest…
This exercise is a bit of fun on my part – I do not take these predictions too seriously anyway. My 2017 track record suggests that I do need to work better on my predictions. May all players give of their best and may the best man claim the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup come Sunday 28 January 2018.
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