The action from Day 5 of the Men’s Singles Draw has seen some further adjustments to my prediction modelling.Out of the 32 matches played in Round 3, 10 of my predictions were off the mark. Given the staggered effort required in writing this update,

Quarter 1 (Round 4)

Including the additional Round 4 matches that have been completed, this quarter represents my best set of predictions – with two incorrect picks, my Round 4 correction proved true. Frenchman Gilles Simon and Pablo Cuevas from Uruguay were bested in their Round 3 matches, but my saving grace is that the other Pableo Carreno Busta is through to the second quarter final. Nadal will face Schwartzman as expected in the first quarter final.

 

Quarter 2 (Round 4)

The second quarter has been a tough segment of the Men’s Single draw, where four predictions have proven incorrect across rounds 3 and 4. Round 4 has seen two of the four matches accurately predicted. Local Nick Krygios’ win over Jo-Wilfred Tsonga is a case of even though my prediction was wrong, I’m still happy with the outcome where a local Australian remains competitive within the draw.

Quarter 3 (Rounds 3 & 4)

For Round 3, three out of eight matches in the third quarter were proven inaccurate. The reliance on Stan Wawrinka for Round 4 was a consequential impact which, inspite of a second attempt again was proven inaccurate for Round 4. Round 4 has been quite accurate in my predictions for this quarter, with Djokovic’s Round 3 win hot off the press.

Quarter 4 (Rounds 3 & 4)

At this point in time, with the final Round 3 match just commencing between Richard Gasquet and Roger Federer, my track records for this final quarter is the poorest, with three out of eight inaccurate predications for Round 3, followed by another 2 (3) for Round 4. Should Federer lose, this quarter will have a majority of matches at Round 4 predicted very inaccurately. The first set score of 6-2 for Federer does injustice to the close competition between the two players. The outcome of the match is still up in the air, so I leave my prediction as still unresolved, although I do suspect Federer will prevail against the Frenchman and his competitiveness.

 

Finals Adjustments

With a few consequential impacts having played out in this Day 5-6 update to Rounds 3 and 4, my finals prediction requires minor adjustments at the Quarter Final level. My predictions for semi-finals and final however remain unchanged. The interesting thing is that Federer has the best odds (2.75) compared to Djokovic (6.50). I suspect this is partly because Novak is only now just returning to playing tennis after his injury, and that factor weighs him down. The semi-final I expect between Djokovic and Federer is likely to be a close one, although I do think it will be decided within four sets.